Sunday, May 17, 2009

Real End

This present war will drag on like this till 13 may when the election in India will be over.... as Tamil Nadu will be in the last phase and will go to polls on that day.
So news of a high civilian casualty/Bloodbath or Prabhakaran's death etc will polarize the voter against DMK -Congress Party vote. So the Lankan army will sit it out till then....ie No large scale attack.The Congress Party is already under pressure. It does not want to reduce it seats in the Parliament. Each single seat counts at this stage.It is maybe moving towards a hung Parliament as voting percentage has been less due to a Strong heat wave blowing across INDIA [ upto 48 Degree].
At the same time Congress will also kept the door little open in case M/S Jayalalita wins strongly and it may need her support to form a government at New Delhi.I think the the 2 Envoys from India who went to Sri Lanka recently [ 26-27 April] did not achieve much. It was more to cool tempers in Tamil Nadu. India in 2009 do not much leverage over Sri Lanka like before. It is just watching the situation as it unfolds in the war theatre. It does not want refugees to land in India. At the same time it cannot arm twist Sri Lanka. Its not the only power there.It is afraid of other powers gaining influence in Sri Lanka that is why it is not taking a very strong stand.
I Think that after May 13 the Lankan army will go for full thrust attack...Whithout caring for Civilian refugees.....if the LTTE Defences have not collasped by it self before this date.Till then the Lankan army will keep up the pressure on LTTE. It will make a thousand cut on the Civilian & LTTE .ie slow bleed to death. Like continious mortar/Shell attacks.I also suspect that since LTTE top people have nothing to loose except thier life..they may during any final battle try to get the maximum number of thier civilians killed so as to Create a Genocide publicity....for the world to see...to continue thier struggle by a new group for the new generation .i.e become martyrs.
What is the best & lasting solution now.....After hearing from all side...Tamils & Singhalese alike.[ I am neither....i come from North india.. Presently working in Middle East]. I think the only way out from the present mess is to Change the constitution of Sri Lanka from its present Unitary system.The best chance for both is equal right for Tamil language and culture.All discriminations should be removed and the Tamil Diaspora should Frankly say that if our rights are taken care off we will not Demand a seperate EALAM.
I think the Singhalese extremist should accept Tamil rights and they should not be afraid as they have demography on thier side. They should not believe that tamils will dominate them.If this is done quickly in the next 2 years then peace will be everlasting.
This is my view ..if you all think that i am naive then what can i do ...i am not an expert in Sri Lanka....Best of Luck to All....

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